The Democratic Convention, flag-waving, H.W. and the dangers of war: a letter from Sean Ray, an article from John Mearsheimer

       “I know Hillary cares more about Ukraine than the current president does,” Kagan replied. “[Obama] said to me [that he wouldn’t arm Ukraine because] he doesn’t want a nuclear war with Russia,” he added, rolling his eyes dismissively. “I don’t think Obama cares about Putin anymore at all. I think he’s hopeless.” – Robert Kagan speaking at a Democratic fundraiser for Hillary here.
***
The link to John Allen’s video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8O0uv4_ryas
www.youtube.com
     Sean Ray wrote to me the following:
        “An otherwise inspiring and encouraging DNC took a dark and foreboding turn when retired four-star USMC General John Allen took the stage. Allen’s appearance was intended to pander to conservative voters and promote Hillary as CinC. “You and the American military will continue to be the shining example of America at her very best,” Allen boomed as chants of “No More War” of Sanders’ supporters were drowned out by rabidly nationalist chants of “USA! USA!” He went on to boast about America having the finest weapons and equipment, but later declared the aim of the Clinton administration to refrain from murder. It isn’t hard to see how these sentiments contradict one another.
Allen’s eight minute explosion of patriotic fervor should serve as reminder of the hawkish aspects of Clinton’s foreign policy: more ill-advised intervention, regime change and aggression, all masked as defense.”
***
   
     General Allen was accompanied by some seventy other generals, admirals and soldiers who stood behind him.  This was the voice of the US military supporting Clinton.  This was 3:AM Clinton, the “warrior Queen,” embracing an expansive,“indispensable, transforming”  military.  Listen to it as Sean suggests; if you are not frightened by it, you have missed something…
***
     For the Democratic Convention under Clinton, and with Obama’s lyricism (one of the most visionary speeches of an American President), stole Reagan’s thunder.  It is “morning in America, USA USA.”  Unfortunately, despite Bernie Sanders’s support for Clinton on domestic issues – she now mostly – TPP aside – has a strong and somewhat believable program here – the chants were designed to drown out “No more wars!,” widely heard on the Convention floor.  The corporate networks gave an impression of unity, though there was deep revolt.  Hundreds of Sanders delegates walked out.  They are against war, and fought for what was decent in the Democratic Party.  Recall Barack and then Bernie more forcefully opposed, with great popular support, the Iraq War.  Hillary – the 3:AM hawk, the most war-like leader in the Democratic elite – voted for it and only finally, sort of admitted it was a mistake. 
***
     But talk of a mistake at this Convention?  Not a chance.  Allen’s speech, as Sean says, was dark and foreboding  He speaks of America as being “the indispensable, transformative power” in world politics.  It intervenes everywhere.  It fights Daeesh which is good.  But it fights ineffectively: bombing and bombing (not very bright; kills lot of civilian). The military will chase down nuclear-armed Russia over the Ukraine… Allen is fierce, almost losing it…
***
   This was a vehemently pro-War Convention designed to appeal to the Republican security apparatus, notably neocons like Kagan as well as H.W.’s advisor, Brent Scowcroft, and not to ordinary people.  And it actively suppressed dissent.  It refused Sanders delegates credentials if they held up signs again the TPP or chanted No More Wars.  Listen to Democracy Now for interviews here and here.  
***
    Many will vote for Clinton, nonetheless (I am one, probably).  But many will vote for Jill Stein or sit it out, and rightly so.  The conduct of the Convention was to produce a TV pageant for unity, not a real discussion on foreign policy.  It did not treat decently or democratically elected delegates (so much for voters…) who disagreed.  
***
    
      Clinton and her entourage silenced the previous, slightly anti-war themes of the Democrats as, more or less, under pressure, less vehement about war.  Obama spoke of Iraq as a “dumb” war, not as a wanton aggression, unjust and murderous.    Not at this Convention.  All the same posters (for advertising effect) and shouting down those who had a thought, phony coverage (all the corporate networks), cheerful patriotism and militarism, speculation only about whether Bernie supporters would vote for Hillary; no interviews.  
***
     Now Nina Turner, the brilliant and forceful Ohio state senator who was supposed to nominate Sanders, was spoken to by Rachel Maddow the first day about the DNC’s seedy and disgraceful emails.   Rachel said she would talk to Nina through the Convention (MSNBC mostly ignored Nina and other Sanders spokespeople during the primaries).  Nina Turner was supposed to nominate Sanders, along with Tulsi Gabbard.  She came to the convention expecting to speak, to be shown to the stage by Democratic operatives.  Instead, no one came to meet her.  Only Bernie finally told her that the Democrats would not let her speak because she had not agreed to support Hillary.  Poof, no more coverage.
***
   What did it gain the Clinton campaign to silence Nina Turner?  What would Turner have said in nomination of Sanders that would have harmful rather than at most showing that debate and dissent about foreign policy are allowed even among Official Clinton Democrats?  Certainly, the treatment of Nina Turner and others makes many people (including me) sick, yet again, of the Democrats, thinking they are not for debate and democracy even about war. Nothing really new here from the time of LBJ.
***
    Now the broad and attractive tapestry of the Convention  was the urging of everyone to be treated as an equal citizen,  as Obama rightly says, a grand and noble theme.  But this theme was then corrupted by saying: equal in the course of maintaining US power abroad.  Certainly, this is better than the petty tyrant, quasi-fascist, spitting racist egotist Trump.  In the talks of Khizr and Ghazala  Khan, this was noble and anti-racist.   Ghazala stood silently, in mourning and reverence for her son, Humayan who gave his life to save his soldiers, but spoke out in the Washington Post against Trump’s attacks.  Khizr Khan offered his treasured constitution – what he studied for citizenship – to the racist Trump to read.  Bravo! 
        If Khizr did not bring tears to one’s eyes, one is without a heart.
***
       But the patriotic theme was a march toward more war, more slaughter of innocents, more and more widespread hatred and fear of the United States and thus, counterproductive as well as wrong.  Consider Andew Bacevich, America’s War for the greater Middle East. See here.  All these American aggressions and militarism keep producing more and more grotesque enemies like Daeesh. But I will speak here about the Ukraine, in which the US is stirring war, with a threat of nuclear war, against a capitalist country which it could have taken into NATO in 1991.  It would then have avoided all of this conflict.  But  H.W.  and NATO refused.  Bill Clinton, W. Bush and Obama have continued this great power but insane policy.  For accepting Russia could have led to a lasting peace, or at least, no threat of war.  Instead, under the head in the sand banner of “there are no threats of war in the 21st century; we are for peace except for Russia” the US has expanded NATO right up to the Russian border, put missiles in Poland.  The US has intervened in Georgia and the Ukraine.  The Russians have cried out in protest every step of the way.  Yet the corporate press (talk about having an authoritarian line…) and bipartisan establishment tells nobody.  Hillary can even distract from the DNC emails and Wasserman-Schultz’s (Hillary’s op) corruption by shouting “Russia, Russia” – and the Timesand the corporate media echo this…
***
     As my friend Bill Arthrell who was in the Ukraine and participated in the Maidan Revolution also writes to me, the revolt was a popular uprising against Yanukovich.  He is surely right.  I know others who were there who have spoken about their distaste for Russian domination.
    That the revolt was, broadly speaking, democratic  is not altered by the fact that the Nazi right – the Rightfront – were leaders in this uprising and entirely, dangers to decency (make Putin look like a nice guy…).  They are beyond creepy.  In the main square in Kiev, there is still a statue to Stefan Bandera who led the slaughter of Jews for the Nazis there – roughly 184,000 out of 187,000 .  The Nazis were worst in the “Wild East” against what Hitler called “Ukrainian redskins” (Hitler, Table Talk).
***
     But an effective Ukrainian democratic revolution needs wide support from below.  It cannot be  the creature, let alone seen to be fostered by the US government.  And here Victoria Nuland, rising “star” in the State Department, candidate for Secretary of State under Hillary Clinton, and married to/alter ego of Robert Kagan, leader of the Project for a New American Century and wanting the US to expand by force in many cases, particularly the Ukraine, played a decisive role.
***
     In response, Russia predictably ate Crimea, mainly made up of ethnic Russians who don’t like Ukraine and the West, to avoid a US base there (there is one in Kyrgyzstan, another former Soviet republic, used to cycle troops into Afghanistan).
    ***
    Compare the Cuban missile crisis.  Soviet leader Khrushchev put nuclear missiles in Cuba, 90 miles from the US shore.  Did John F. Kennedy go to sleep?  Not a chance.  He had a blockade of Cuba, thinking mistakenly that the missiles were not already in place.  Some advisors like the mad General Lemay urged nuking Cuba.  Fortunately, Kennedy avoided nuclear holocaust by listening to sound advice – see the Errol Morris film on Robert McNamara, Fog of War, in which the Pentagon Secretary gives an extraordinary picture of the near miss.  Kennedy is, in this depiction, perhaps the most impressive modern US president (not sure even Obama would have avoided destruction of the world).
***
      As John Mearsheimer suggested in Foreign Affairs in 2014 below, a revolution in the Ukraine could be linked to its being a neutral buffer state between Russia and NATO.  That would be wise.  Caught up in U.S./NATO enmity toward Russia, a revolution seeking being in NATO or being pro-U.S. was inevitably going to produce a fierce Russian response.  Consider Cuba which made a revolution, was confronted by US hostility, and  then took Soviet support. The US had the Bay of Pigs invasion and almost nuclear war in the missile crisis.  If the US/NATO organize threats up to the Russian border, who would expect less trouble?
***
     Now, Putin is a big killer (so is Obama with drones, however).  But Putin saved Obama’s bacon in Obama’s rightly widely protested aim of firing missiles at Syria.  And Putin’s troops are, in a swift and decisive way, attacking IS (and defending the cruel Assad).  But Putin is a model of getting out quickly, something the US, even under Obama, is rarely wise enough to do.
***
     It behooves the US and other powers who wish to avoid war to think anew about this.  The Clinton/Nuland/Kagan/Stroud/Smith/Flournoy – all women hawks except for Kagan – has gone the opposite way.  See here.  War-making/escalating is a dangerous prospect which we all need to challenge now.
***
     
    Below is the Los Angeles Times December, 1991 report on Russia asking for admission to NATO and Belgium, Canada and, of course, quietly the controlling US under H.W. Bush stiffing them, is first below; then Mearsheimer and Walt.
***
Russia Hopes to Join NATO
December 21, 1991|WILLIAM TUOHY and NORMAN KEMPSTER | TIMES STAFF WRITERS
BRUSSELS — Russian Federation President Boris N. Yeltsin, in a letter that surprised the inaugural session of a new grouping of former East-West enemies, declared Friday that Russia hopes to join NATO as part of a “long-term political aim.”
The Russian leader informed the meeting of the new North Atlantic Cooperation Council, a group of foreign ministers from East and West nations, that he fully supports efforts “to create a new system of security from Vancouver to Vladivostok.”
His statement was presented to the first meeting of ministers from the 16 members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the six former Warsaw Pact adversaries and the three Baltic republics.

The proposal for Russia to join NATO was cautiously received on what Western officials emphasized was an epic day.

“When I took office as secretary general of the alliance,” said NATO’s Manfred Woerner, “I could not receive the ambassadors of any Central or Eastern countries in our headquarters; 3 1/2 years later, here we are, sitting around the same table.
“If ever history witnessed a profound turnaround,” he said, “this is such a unique moment, a moment not only of high symbolic, but also of eminent practical value. Europe will not be the same after our meeting today.”

Woerner added that “what yesterday seemed only a bold vision–a Europe, whole and free–today is becoming reality.”

Secretary of State James A. Baker III said the session of the cooperation council, created at the Rome NATO summit, is “a commitment to strengthen and expand the Euro-Atlantic community–to deepen it, to widen it. For 40 years, we stood apart from one another as two opposing blocs. Now, history has given us the opportunity to erase those blocs, to join together in a common circle built on shared universal and democratic values.”

In his message to the group, delivered by the Soviet ambassador to Belgium, Yeltsin also said that Russia and the new members of the Commonwealth of Independent States “guaranteed” their adherence to all arms control and other commitments made by the “former U.S.S.R.”

In responding to the Yeltsin suggestion that NATO’s former chief antagonist be eventually admitted to the Western Alliance, Woerner declared: “Nothing is excluded. We will take it into account. There is time enough to develop the relationship.”

But other Western ministers were cautious.

“If you do it for Russia, you also have to do it for the other republics,” Belgian Foreign Minister Mark Eyskens said. “For NATO, there is a danger of dilution.”
Canadian Foreign Minister Barbara McDougall said of Russia’s admission to NATO, 

“It’s not something for the immediate future,” a sentiment echoed by British Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd, who added: “It’s a long way off. It won’t be on the actual agenda for a bit of time to come.”

In Rome, Yeltsin said his country’s membership in NATO is a “hypothetical thesis” that could occur only after “much vaster and much more radical” strategic arms reductions.

Yeltsin’s raising the question of Russian membership in NATO was Moscow’s first such exploratory move. It followed similar membership inquiries by the Soviet Union’s former East European satellites. They have been informed that, for the moment, a “liaison” role with NATO is as much as the alliance can offer.
Meantime, several of the former East Bloc nations, notably Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia, expressed concern Friday that ethnic warfare in Yugoslavia, and possibly along their eastern borders, could threaten their security.
But the cooperation council’s declaration, issued at the meeting’s end, reminded potential aggressors that European security is “indivisible and the security of each of our states is inextricably linked” to that of all European countries and the United States.
The move to bring former Warsaw Pact countries into a closer relationship with NATO began at the London summit in the summer of 1990 and was formalized–in terms of ministerial meetings–at last month’s NATO meeting in Rome.

The outbreak of civil war in Yugoslavia and the inability of European countries to do much about it, as well as the dissolution of the Soviet Union, has caused widespread concern. But some of the East Europeans here expressed satisfaction with their new NATO connection.

Asked if he feared a “security vacuum” in Central and Eastern Europe, and whether Friday’s meeting did anything to allay it, Polish Foreign Minister Krzysztof Skubiszewski declared: “This is an important step forward in increasing our sense of security over crises that might arise in Central Europe,” adding that the new identity with NATO might have a “constraining effect” on anyone instigating such a crisis.
He noted, “I don’t think NATO’s inability to stop a civil war in Yugoslavia militates against its contribution to our security.”

And Czechoslovakia’s Foreign Minister Jiri Dienstbier quipped: “I don’t feel more secure at 12 today than at 8 this morning. We made further steps today. We’re satisfied.”

Estonia’s Foreign Minister Lennart Meri said, “We see the role of the (cooperation council) as a political forum which could remove those barriers which could paralyze the efficiency of NATO in a real crisis.”

Their comments were backed up by Baker’s remark that the council “could play a role in controlling crises in Europe,” an idea that NATO’s Woerner affirmed, saying, “An attack on neighboring countries would create a very serious situation for all our member countries.”

Woerner also backed Baker’s remarks Thursday that it might be not be bad for Russia to retain some kind of nuclear arsenal as a deterrent, perhaps, Woerner said, against a “Third World country.
***

Foreign Affairs 
Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault
The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin
John J. Mearsheimer
A
    According to the prevailing wisdom in the West, the Ukraine crisis can be blamed almost entirely on Russian aggression. Russian President Vladimir Putin, the argument goes, annexed Crimea out of a long-standing desire to resuscitate the Soviet empire, and he may eventually go after the rest of Ukraine, as well as other countries in eastern Europe. In this view, the ouster of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in February 2014 merely provided a pre- text for Putin’s decision to order Russian forces to seize part of Ukraine.

But this account is wrong: the United States and its European allies share most of the responsibility for the crisis. The taproot of the trou- ble is NATO enlargement, the central element of a larger strategy to move Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit and integrate it into the West. At the same time, the EU’s expansion eastward and the West’s backing of the pro-democracy movement in Ukraine—beginning with the Or- ange Revolution in 2004—were critical elements, too. Since the mid- 1990s, Russian leaders have adamantly opposed NATO enlargement and in recent years, they have made it clear that they would not stand by while their strategically important neighbor turned into a Western bastion. For Putin, the illegal overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically elected and pro-Russian president—which he rightly labeled a “coup”—was the final straw. He responded by taking Crimea, a pen- insula he feared would host a NATO naval base, and working to desta- bilize Ukraine until it abandoned its efforts to join the West.

Putin’s pushback should have come as no surprise. After all, the West had been moving into Russia’s backyard and threatening its core

JOHN J. MEARSHEIMER is R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago.
September/October 2014 1
John J. Mearsheimer

strategic interests, a point Putin made emphatically and repeatedly. Elites in the United States and Europe have been blindsided by events only because they subscribe to a flawed view of international politics. They tend to believe that the logic of realism holds little relevance in the twenty-first century and that Europe can be kept whole and free on the basis of such liberal principles as the rule of law, economic in- terdependence, and democracy.

But this grand scheme went awry in Ukraine. The crisis there shows that realpolitik remains relevant—and states that ignore it do so at their own peril. U.S. and European leaders blundered in attempting to turn Ukraine into a Western stronghold on Russia’s border. Now that the consequences have been laid bare, it would be an even greater mistake to continue this misbegotten policy.

THE WESTERN AFFRONT

As the Cold War came to a close, Soviet leaders preferred that U.S. forces remain in Europe and NATO stay intact, an arrangement they thought would keep a reunified Germany pacified. But they and their Russian successors did not want NATO to grow any larger and assumed that Western diplomats understood their concerns. The Clinton administration evidently thought otherwise, and in the mid-1990s, it began pushing for NATO to expand.

The first round of enlargement took place in 1999 and brought in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. The second occurred in 2004; it included Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slo- vakia, and Slovenia. Moscow complained bitterly from the start. Dur- ing NATO’s 1995 bombing campaign against the Bosnian Serbs, for example, Russian President Boris Yeltsin said, “This is the first sign of what could happen when NATO comes right up to the Russian Fed- eration’s borders. . . . The flame of war could burst out across the whole of Europe.” But the Russians were too weak at the time to de- rail NATO’s eastward movement—which, at any rate, did not look so threatening, since none of the new members shared a border with Russia, save for the tiny Baltic countries.

Then NATO began looking further east. At its April 2008 summit in Bucharest, the alliance considered admitting Georgia and Ukraine. The George W. Bush administration supported doing so, but France and Germany opposed the move for fear that it would unduly antago- nize Russia. In the end, NATO’s members reached a compromise: the

2 FOREIGN AFFAIRS

alliance did not begin the formal process leading to membership, but it issued a statement endorsing the aspirations of Georgia and Ukraine and boldly declaring, “These countries will become members of NATO.”

Moscow, however, did not see the outcome as much of a compro- mise. Alexander Grushko, then Russia’s deputy foreign minister, said, “Georgia’s and Ukraine’s membership in the alliance is a huge strate- gic mistake which would have most se-
rious consequences for pan-European security.” Putin maintained that admit- ting those two countries to NATO would represent a “direct threat” to Russia. One Russian newspaper reported that Putin, while speaking with Bush, “very transparently hinted that if Ukraine was accepted into NATO, it would cease to exist.”
U.S. and European leaders blundered in attempting to turn Ukraine into a
Western stronghold on Russia’s border.

Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault
Russia’s invasion of Georgia in August 2008 should have dispelled any remaining doubts about Putin’s determination to prevent Georgia and Ukraine from joining NATO. Georgian President Mikheil Saa- kashvili, who was deeply committed to bringing his country into NATO, had decided in the summer of 2008 to reincorporate two sepa- ratist regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But Putin sought to keep Georgia weak and divided—and out of NATO. After fighting broke out between the Georgian government and South Ossetian separatists, Russian forces took control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Moscow had made its point. Yet despite this clear warning, NATO never pub- licly abandoned its goal of bringing Georgia and Ukraine into the al- liance. And NATO expansion continued marching forward, with Albania and Croatia becoming members in 2009.

The EU, too, has been marching eastward. In May 2008, it unveiled its Eastern Partnership initiative, a program to foster prosperity in such countries as Ukraine and integrate them into the EU economy. Not surprisingly, Russian leaders view the plan as hostile to their country’s interests. This past February, before Yanukovych was forced from office, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused the EU of trying to create a “sphere of influence” in eastern Europe. In the eyes of Russian leaders, EU expansion is a stalking horse for NATO expansion.

The West’s final tool for peeling Kiev away from Moscow has been

September/October 2014 3
John J. Mearsheimer

its efforts to spread Western values and promote democracy in Ukraine and other post-Soviet states, a plan that often entails funding pro- Western individuals and organizations. Victoria Nuland, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, estimated in December 2013 that the United States had invested more than $5 billion since 1991 to help Ukraine achieve “the future it deserves.” As part of that effort, the U.S. government has bankrolled the National Endowment for Democracy. The nonprofit foundation has funded more than 60 projects aimed at promoting civil society in Ukraine, and the NED’s president, Carl Gershman, has called that country “the biggest prize.” After Yanukovych won Ukraine’s presidential election in February 2010, the NED decided he was undermining its goals, and so it stepped up its efforts to support the opposition and strengthen the country’s democratic institutions.

When Russian leaders look at Western social engineering in Ukraine, they worry that their country might be next. And such fears are hardly groundless. In September 2013, Gershman wrote in The Washington Post, “Ukraine’s choice to join Europe will accelerate the demise of the ideology of Russian imperialism that Putin represents.” He added: “Russians, too, face a choice, and Putin may find himself on the losing end not just in the near abroad but within Russia itself.”

CREATING A CRISIS

The West’s triple package of policies—NATO enlargement, EU expansion, and democracy promotion—added fuel to a fire waiting to ignite. The spark came in November 2013, when Yanukovych rejected a major economic deal he had been negotiating with the EU and decided to accept a $15 billion Russian counteroffer instead. That decision gave rise to antigovernment demonstrations that escalated over the following three months and that by mid-February had led to the deaths of some one hundred protesters. Western emissaries hurriedly flew to Kiev to resolve the crisis. On February 21, the government and the opposition struck a deal that allowed Yanukovych to stay in power until new elections were held. But it immediately fell apart, and Ya- nukovych fled to Russia the next day. The new government in Kiev was pro-Western and anti-Russian to the core, and it contained four high-ranking members who could legitimately be labeled neofascists.

Although the full extent of U.S. involvement has not yet come to light, it is clear that Washington backed the coup. Nuland and Repub-

4 FOREIGN AFFAIRS

lican Senator John McCain participated in antigovernment demonstrations, and Geoffrey Pyatt, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, proclaimed after Yanukovych’s toppling that it was “a day for the his- tory books.” As a leaked telephone recording revealed, Nuland had advocated regime change and wanted the Ukrainian politician Arseniy Yatsenyuk to become prime minister in the new government, which he did. No wonder Russians of all persuasions think the West played a role in Yanukovych’s ouster.

For Putin, the time to act against Ukraine and the West had ar- rived. Shortly after February 22, he ordered Russian forces to take Crimea from Ukraine, and soon after that, he incorporated it into Russia. The task proved relatively easy, thanks to the thousands of Russian troops already stationed at a naval base in the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Crimea also made for an easy target since ethnic Rus- sians compose roughly 60 percent of its population. Most of them wanted out of Ukraine.
Next, Putin put massive pressure on the new government in Kiev to discourage it from siding with the West against Moscow, making it clear that he would wreck Ukraine as a functioning state before he would allow it to become a Western stronghold on Russia’s doorstep. Toward that end, he has provided advisers, arms, and diplomatic sup- port to the Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, who are pushing the country toward civil war. He has massed a large army on the Ukrainian border, threatening to invade if the government cracks down on the rebels. And he has sharply raised the price of the natural gas Russia sells to Ukraine and demanded payment for past exports. Putin is playing hardball.

THE DIAGNOSIS

Putin’s actions should be easy to comprehend. A huge expanse of flat land that Napoleonic France, imperial Germany, and Nazi Germany all crossed to strike at Russia itself, Ukraine serves as a buffer state of enormous strategic importance to Russia. No Russian leader would tolerate a military alliance that was Moscow’s mortal enemy until re- cently moving into Ukraine. Nor would any Russian leader stand idly by while the West helped install a government there that was deter- mined to integrate Ukraine into the West.

Washington may not like Moscow’s position, but it should understand the logic behind it. This is Geopolitics 101: great powers are

Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault
September/October 2014 5
John J. Mearsheimer

always sensitive to potential threats near their home territory. After all, the United States does not tolerate distant great powers deploying military forces anywhere in the Western Hemisphere, much less on its borders. Imagine the outrage in Washington if China built an impressive military alliance and tried to include Canada and Mexico in it. Logic aside, Russian leaders have told their Western counterparts
on many occasions that they consider NATO expansion into Georgia and Ukraine unacceptable, along with any effort to turn those countries against Russia—a message that the 2008 Russian-Georgian war also made crystal clear.

Officials from the United States and its European allies contend that they tried hard to assuage Russian fears and that Moscow should under- stand that NATO has no designs on Russia. In addition to continually denying that its expansion was aimed at containing Russia, the alli- ance has never permanently deployed military forces in its new mem- ber states. In 2002, it even created a body called the NATO-Russia Council in an effort to foster cooperation. To further mollify Russia, the United States announced in 2009 that it would deploy its new missile defense system on warships in European waters, at least ini- tially, rather than on Czech or Polish territory. But none of these measures worked; the Russians remained steadfastly opposed to NATO enlargement, especially into Georgia and Ukraine. And it is the Rus- sians, not the West, who ultimately get to decide what counts as a threat to them.
To understand why the West, especially the United States, failed to
understand that its Ukraine policy was laying the groundwork for a major clash with Russia, one must go back to the mid-1990s, when the Clinton administration began advocating NATO expansion. Pundits advanced a variety of arguments for and against enlargement, but there was no consensus on what to do. Most eastern European émi- grés in the United States and their relatives, for example, strongly supported expansion, because they wanted NATO to protect such coun- tries as Hungary and Poland. A few realists also favored the policy because they thought Russia still needed to be contained.

But most realists opposed expansion, in the belief that a declining

6 FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Imagine the outrage if China built an impressive military alliance and tried to include Canada and Mexico in it.
great power with an aging population and a one-dimensional economy did not in fact need to be contained. And they feared that enlargement would only give Moscow an incentive to cause trouble in eastern Europe. The U.S. diplomat George Kennan articulated this perspective in a 1998 interview, shortly after the U.S. Senate approved the first round of NATO expansion. “I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies,” he said. “I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anyone else.”

Most liberals, on the other hand, favored enlargement, including many key members of the Clinton administration. They believed that the end of the Cold War had fundamentally transformed international politics and that a new, postnational order had replaced the realist logic that used to govern Europe. The United States was not only the “indispensable nation,” as Secretary of State Madeleine Albright put it; it was also a benign hegemon and thus unlikely to be viewed as a threat in Moscow. The aim, in essence, was to make the entire conti- nent look like western Europe.
And so the United States and its allies sought to promote democ- racy in the countries of eastern Europe, increase economic interde- pendence among them, and embed them in international institutions. Having won the debate in the United States, liberals had little diffi- culty convincing their European allies to support NATO enlargement. After all, given the EU’s past achievements, Europeans were even more wedded than Americans to the idea that geopolitics no longer mattered and that an all-inclusive liberal order could maintain peace in Europe.

So thoroughly did liberals come to dominate the discourse about European security during the first decade of this century that even as the alliance adopted an open-door policy of growth, NATO expansion faced little realist opposition. The liberal worldview is now accepted dogma among U.S. officials. In March, for example, President Barack Obama delivered a speech about Ukraine in which he talked repeat- edly about “the ideals” that motivate Western policy and how those ideals “have often been threatened by an older, more traditional view of power.” Secretary of State John Kerry’s response to the Crimea crisis reflected this same perspective: “You just don’t in the twenty- first century behave in nineteenth-century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped-up pretext.”

Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault
September/October 2014 7
John J. Mearsheimer

In essence, the two sides have been operating with different play-books: Putin and his compatriots have been thinking and acting ac- cording to realist dictates, whereas their Western counterparts have been adhering to liberal ideas about international politics. The result is that the United States and its allies unknowingly provoked a major crisis over Ukraine.

BLAME GAME

In that same 1998 interview, Kennan predicted that NATO expansion would provoke a crisis, after which the proponents of expansion would “say that we always told you that is how the Russians are.” As if on cue, most Western officials have portrayed Putin as the real culprit in the Ukraine predicament. In March, according to The New York Times, German Chancellor Angela Merkel implied that Putin was irrational, telling Obama that he was “in another world.” Although Putin no doubt has autocratic tendencies, no evidence supports the charge that he is mentally unbalanced. On the contrary: he is a first-class strate- gist who should be feared and respected by anyone challenging him on foreign policy.

Other analysts allege, more plausibly, that Putin regrets the demise of the Soviet Union and is determined to reverse it by expanding Rus- sia’s borders. According to this interpretation, Putin, having taken Crimea, is now testing the waters to see if the time is right to conquer Ukraine, or at least its eastern part, and he will eventually behave ag- gressively toward other countries in Russia’s neighborhood. For some in this camp, Putin represents a modern-day Adolf Hitler, and strik- ing any kind of deal with him would repeat the mistake of Munich. Thus, NATO must admit Georgia and Ukraine to contain Russia be- fore it dominates its neighbors and threatens western Europe.

This argument falls apart on close inspection. If Putin were committed to creating a greater Russia, signs of his intentions would almost certainly have arisen before February 22. But there is virtually no evidence that he was bent on taking Crimea, much less any other territory in Ukraine, before that date. Even Western leaders who sup- ported NATO expansion were not doing so out of a fear that Russia was about to use military force. Putin’s actions in Crimea took them by complete surprise and appear to have been a spontaneous reaction to Yanukovych’s ouster. Right afterward, even Putin said he opposed Crimean secession, before quickly changing his mind.

8 FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Besides, even if it wanted to, Russia lacks the capability to easily conquer and annex eastern Ukraine, much less the entire country. Roughly 15 million people—one-third of Ukraine’s population—live between the Dnieper River, which bisects the country, and the Rus- sian border. An overwhelming majority of those people want to re- main part of Ukraine and would surely resist a Russian occupation. Furthermore, Russia’s mediocre army, which shows few signs of turn- ing into a modern Wehrmacht, would have little chance of pacifying all of Ukraine. Moscow is also poorly positioned to pay for a costly occupation; its weak economy would suffer even more in the face of the resulting sanctions.

But even if Russia did boast a powerful military machine and an impressive economy, it would still probably prove unable to successfully occupy Ukraine. One need only consider the Soviet and U.S. experiences in Afghanistan, the U.S. experiences in Vietnam and Iraq, and the Russian experience in Chechnya to be reminded that military occupations usually end badly. Putin surely understands that trying to subdue Ukraine would be like swallowing a porcupine. His response to events there has been defensive, not offensive.

A WAY OUT

Given that most Western leaders continue to deny that Putin’s behavior might be motivated by legitimate security concerns, it is unsur- prising that they have tried to modify it by doubling down on their existing policies and have punished Russia to deter further aggres- sion. Although Kerry has maintained that “all options are on the ta- ble,” neither the United States nor its NATO allies are prepared to use force to defend Ukraine. The West is relying instead on economic sanctions to coerce Russia into ending its support for the insurrection in eastern Ukraine. In July, the United States and the EU put in place their third round of limited sanctions, targeting mainly high-level in- dividuals closely tied to the Russian government and some high-pro- file banks, energy companies, and defense firms. They also threatened to unleash another, tougher round of sanctions, aimed at whole sec- tors of the Russian economy.
Such measures will have little effect. Harsh sanctions are likely off the table anyway; western European countries, especially Germany, have resisted imposing them for fear that Russia might retaliate and cause serious economic damage within the EU. But even if the United

Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault
September/October 2014 9
John J. Mearsheimer

States could convince its allies to enact tough measures, Putin would probably not alter his decision-making. History shows that countries will absorb enormous amounts of punishment in order to protect their core strategic interests. There is no reason to think Russia represents an exception to this rule.

Western leaders have also clung to the provocative policies that precipitated the crisis in the first place. In April, U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden met with Ukrainian legislators and told them, “This is a second opportunity to make good on the original promise made by the Orange Revolution.” John Brennan, the director of the CIA, did not help things when, that same month, he visited Kiev on a trip the White House said was aimed at improving security cooperation with the Ukrainian government.
The EU, meanwhile, has continued to push its Eastern Partnership. In March, José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commis- sion, summarized EU thinking on Ukraine, saying, “We have a debt, a duty of solidarity with that country, and we will work to have them as close as possible to us.” And sure enough, on June 27, the EU and Ukraine signed the economic agreement that Yanukovych had fate- fully rejected seven months earlier. Also in June, at a meeting of NATO members’ foreign ministers, it was agreed that the alliance would re- main open to new members, although the foreign ministers refrained from mentioning Ukraine by name. “No third country has a veto over NATO enlargement,” announced Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO’s sec-retary-general. The foreign ministers also agreed to support various measures to improve Ukraine’s military capabilities in such areas as command and control, logistics, and cyberdefense. Russian leaders have naturally recoiled at these actions; the West’s response to the crisis will only make a bad situation worse.
There is a solution to the crisis in Ukraine, however—although it would require the West to think about the country in a fundamentally new way. The United States and its allies should abandon their plan to westernize Ukraine and instead aim to make it a neutral buffer be- tween NATO and Russia, akin to Austria’s position during the Cold War. Western leaders should acknowledge that Ukraine matters so much to Putin that they cannot support an anti-Russian regime there. This would not mean that a future Ukrainian government would have to be pro-Russian or anti-NATO. On the contrary, the goal should be a sovereign Ukraine that falls in neither the Russian nor the Western

10 FOREIGN AFFAIRS

camp.
To achieve this end, the United States and its allies should publicly
rule out NATO’s expansion into both Georgia and Ukraine. The West should also help fashion an economic rescue plan for Ukraine funded jointly by the EU, the International Monetary Fund, Russia, and the United States—a proposal that Moscow should welcome, given its interest in having a prosperous and

Some may argue that changing policy toward Ukraine at this late date would seriously damage U.S. credibility around the world. There would undoubtedly be certain costs, but the costs of continuing a mis- guided strategy would be much greater. Furthermore, other countries are likely to respect a state that learns from its mistakes and ultimately devises a policy that deals effectively with the problem at hand. That option is clearly open to the United States.

One also hears the claim that Ukraine has the right to determine whom it wants to ally with and the Russians have no right to prevent Kiev from joining the West. This is a dangerous way for Ukraine to think about its foreign policy choices. The sad truth is that might of- ten makes right when great-power politics are at play. Abstract rights such as self-determination are largely meaningless when powerful states get into brawls with weaker states. Did Cuba have the right to form a military alliance with the Soviet Union during the Cold War? The United States certainly did not think so, and the Russians think the same way about Ukraine joining the West. It is in Ukraine’s inter- est to understand these facts of life and tread carefully when dealing with its more powerful neighbor.

Even if one rejects this analysis, however, and believes that Ukraine has the right to petition to join the EU and NATO, the fact remains that the United States and its European allies have the right to reject these requests. There is no reason that the West has to accommodate

Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault
stable Ukraine on its western flank.
And the West should considerably limit
its social-engineering efforts inside
Ukraine. It is time to put an end to
Western support for another Orange Revolution. Nevertheless, U.S. and
 European leaders should encourage 
Ukraine to respect minority rights, especially the language rights of its Russian speakers.

The United States and its allies should abandon their plan to westernize Ukraine and instead aim to make it a neutral buffer.
September/October 2014 11
John J. Mearsheimer

Ukraine if it is bent on pursuing a wrong-headed foreign policy, especially if its defense is not a vital interest for them. Indulging the dreams of some Ukrainians is not worth the animosity and strife it will cause, especially for the Ukrainian people.
Of course, some analysts might concede that NATO handled rela- tions with Ukraine poorly and yet still maintain that Russia consti- tutes an enemy that will only grow more formidable over time—and that the West therefore has no choice but to continue its present pol- icy. But this viewpoint is badly mistaken. Russia is a declining power, and it will only get weaker with time. Even if Russia were a rising power, moreover, it would still make no sense to incorporate Ukraine into NATO. The reason is simple: the United States and its European allies do not consider Ukraine to be a core strategic interest, as their unwillingness to use military force to come to its aid has proved. It would therefore be the height of folly to create a new NATO member that the other members have no intention of defending. NATO has expanded in the past because liberals assumed the alliance would never have to honor its new security guarantees, but Russia’s recent power play shows that granting Ukraine NATO membership could put Russia and the West on a collision course.
Sticking with the current policy would also complicate Western relations with Moscow on other issues. The United States needs Rus- sia’s assistance to withdraw U.S. equipment from Afghanistan through Russian territory, reach a nuclear agreement with Iran, and stabilize the situation in Syria. In fact, Moscow has helped Washington on all three of these issues in the past; in the summer of 2013, it was Putin who pulled Obama’s chestnuts out of the fire by forging the deal un- der which Syria agreed to relinquish its chemical weapons, thereby avoiding the U.S. military strike that Obama had threatened. The United States will also someday need Russia’s help containing a rising China. Current U.S. policy, however, is only driving Moscow and Beijing closer together.

The United States and its European allies now face a choice on Ukraine. They can continue their current policy, which will exacer- bate hostilities with Russia and devastate Ukraine in the process—a scenario in which everyone would come out a loser. Or they can switch gears and work to create a prosperous but neutral Ukraine, one that does not threaten Russia and allows the West to repair its relations with Moscow. With that approach, all sides would win.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *